tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 5128 at 15:40, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5128 American flown by PSA Flight history → TUL 15:40 DCA 19:16 26% 7% 2.9% 90%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 1h 02m Houston IAH 07:45 → DCA 11:40UA 512 5h 40m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 7h 59m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798 5h 52m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654 8h 03m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:50 → ORD 09:03AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 1h 34m Chicago ORD 10:37 → DCA 13:48AA 1200 5h 58m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → TUL 05:58 → DFW 07:28AA 1090 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:50 → DCA 12:52AA 1177 5h 54m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → TUL 11:14 → ATL 14:16DL 2754 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → DCA 19:48DL 832 7h 34m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:43 → ATL 15:44DL 2620 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325 7h 04m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TUL 12:41 → DFW 14:02AA 2352 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:54 → DCA 19:11AA 2520 5h 30m 67% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON