Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4203 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 4203 TUL 07:01 → DEN 08:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5914 TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4203 Southwest	TUL 07:01	DEN 08:03	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 5667 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 06:00	DEN 07:00	5%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1435 United	TUL 08:53	DEN 09:44	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 5276 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 11:44	DEN 12:44	11%	5%	0.7%	85%
WN 1764 Southwest	TUL 18:01	DEN 18:58	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 5914 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 17:10	DEN 18:10	26%	8%	0.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON