Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3821 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–40%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3821 TUL 05:04 → DFW 06:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2830 TUL 18:23 → DFW 19:45 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3821 Envoy	TUL 05:04	DFW 06:15	7%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 1090 American Flight history →	TUL 05:58	DFW 07:28	9%	6%	1.6%	91%
AA 2348 American Flight history →	TUL 10:39	DFW 11:59	18%	7%	1.5%	80%
AA 3095 American Flight history →	TUL 07:47	DFW 09:12	18%	6%	1.6%	75%
AA 2352 American Flight history →	TUL 12:41	DFW 14:02	23%	10%	1.6%	83%
AA 2851 American Flight history →	TUL 17:05	DFW 18:29	35%	17%	3.7%	70%
AA 2830 American	TUL 18:23	DFW 19:45	40%	17%	4.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON