Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4219 at 08:06, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4219 Southwest	TUL 08:06	HOU 09:52	4%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	TUL 05:58 → DFW 07:28AA 1090	1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:02 → HOU 10:31AA 9754	4h 33m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	TUL 11:14 → ATL 14:16DL 2754	56m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	5h 08m	87%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON