Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1049 TUL 06:53 → IAH 08:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6015 TUL 13:47 → IAH 15:32 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1049 United	TUL 06:53	IAH 08:33	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 5748 SkyWest	TUL 09:02	IAH 10:56	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 6015 SkyWest	TUL 13:47	IAH 15:32	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 4041 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 05:00	IAH 06:43	6%	1%	0.0%	94%
UA 3984 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 07:00	IAH 08:46	9%	3%	0.0%	91%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON