tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1745 at 13:41, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1745 Southwest TUL 13:41 LAS 14:44 17% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 5h 07m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 13m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:05DL 466 8h 05m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → TUL 08:52 → PHX 09:41AA 3434 · flown by Envoy 1h 25m Phoenix PHX 11:06 → LAS 12:30AA 457 5h 38m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 6h 01m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 3h 20m Denver DEN 16:04 → LAS 17:11UA 2424 7h 27m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → TUL 11:14 → ATL 14:16DL 2754 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:55 → LAS 17:05DL 711 7h 51m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:43 → ATL 15:44DL 2620 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → LAS 20:15DL 919 9h 32m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest 55m Denver DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655 4h 58m 68% 49%
AmericanDetails → TUL 17:05 → DFW 18:29AA 2851 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:22 → LAS 20:11AA 1771 5h 06m 62% 30%
AlaskaDetails → TUL 15:07 → SAN 16:15AS 2320 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m San Diego SAN 17:15 → LAS 18:41AS 2018 · flown by Horizon 5h 34m 49% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON