tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 6286 at 17:00, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 6286 SkyWest TUL 17:00 LAX 18:35 18% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 10h 12m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 3h 10m Houston IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469 8h 30m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 47m Houston IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 9h 06m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 7h 34m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Denver DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195 7h 31m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:43 → ATL 15:44DL 2620 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 18:50 → LAX 20:21DL 996 9h 38m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 27m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUL 11:14 → ATL 14:16DL 2754 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500 10h 16m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON