tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, YX 4605 at 11:59, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 4605 Republic TUL 11:59 LGA 16:26 11% 5% 2.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Denver DEN 08:03 → LGA 13:57UA 1442 6h 57m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 7h 50m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 1h 20m Houston IAH 08:03 → LGA 12:45UA 1143 6h 45m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → TUL 11:14 → ATL 14:16DL 2754 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997 7h 13m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:43 → ATL 15:44DL 2620 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468 7h 45m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Denver DEN 13:59 → LGA 19:53UA 1579 7h 09m 92% 76%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 14m Houston IAH 12:00 → LGA 16:44UA 2181 8h 44m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:50 → ORD 09:03AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 1h 10m Chicago ORD 10:13 → LGA 13:34AA 3128 5h 44m 95% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON