tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4726 at 08:31, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4726 Southwest TUL 08:31 MCO 12:16 9% 3% 4.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Denver DEN 08:10 → MCO 13:57UA 2292 6h 57m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372 7h 34m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m Denver DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501 6h 55m 91% 71%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 11:14 → MCO 17:38DL 1691 8h 38m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → TUL 11:14 → ATL 14:16DL 2754 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → MCO 18:50DL 1497 6h 36m 99% 68%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30AA 1729 1h 57m Charlotte CLT 12:27 → MCO 14:12AA 2117 6h 12m 93% 67%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:50 → ORD 09:03AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 1h 29m Chicago ORD 10:32 → MCO 14:21AA 3293 6h 31m 97% 63%
AmericanDetails → TUL 05:58 → DFW 07:28AA 1090 3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:01 → MCO 14:44AA 2151 7h 46m 99% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TUL 15:40 → DCA 19:16AA 5128 · flown by PSA 56m Washington DCA 20:12 → MCO 22:43AA 2139 6h 03m 67% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON