Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Denver	DEN 09:52 → MIA 16:00UA 1418	9h 00m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 07m	97%	72%
United Details →	TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest	3h 19m Denver	DEN 16:03 → MIA 22:05UA 445	9h 21m	99%	71%
American Details →	TUL 15:40 → DCA 19:16AA 5128 · flown by PSA	1h 48m Washington	DCA 21:04 → MIA 23:48AA 2214	7h 08m	91%	68%
American Details →	TUL 08:52 → PHX 09:41AA 3434 · flown by Envoy	2h 32m Phoenix	PHX 12:13 → MIA 19:47AA 404	9h 55m	100%	65%
Delta Details →	TUL 11:14 → ATL 14:16DL 2754	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MIA 19:44DL 719	7h 30m	99%	65%
Delta Details →	TUL 17:29 → ATL 20:32DL 2837	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 26m	95%	64%
American Details →	TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30AA 1729	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 13:35 → MIA 15:38AA 1198	7h 38m	96%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TUL 10:39 → DFW 11:59AA 2348	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:46 → MIA 16:48AA 2461	5h 09m	54%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON