Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2063 at 05:53 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 2063 TUL 05:53 → ORD 07:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4057 TUL 19:31 → ORD 21:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2063 United	TUL 05:53	ORD 07:52	8%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3590 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 06:50	ORD 09:03	11%	4%	1.7%	85%
AA 4155 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 10:51	ORD 12:49	17%	5%	1.8%	83%
OO 5442 SkyWest	TUL 09:53	ORD 11:56	18%	8%	1.0%	no record
MQ 4098 Envoy	TUL 16:00	ORD 18:00	28%	7%	2.5%	no record
AA 4057 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 19:31	ORD 21:25	29%	8%	3.1%	50%
UA 4483 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 18:20	ORD 20:30	29%	10%	5.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON