tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3434 American flown by Envoy Flight history → TUL 08:52 PHX 09:41 9% 3% 0.7% 93%
WN 4208 Southwest TUL 14:06 PHX 14:58 14% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 2h 57m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 7h 34m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → PHX 12:01DL 1431 6h 01m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → PHX 09:00UA 1481 5h 00m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 6h 51m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796 8h 16m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUL 11:14 → ATL 14:16DL 2754 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → PHX 17:39DL 836 8h 25m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → TUL 05:58 → DFW 07:28AA 1090 2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:26 → PHX 11:03AA 2905 7h 05m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30AA 1729 2h 45m Charlotte CLT 13:15 → PHX 14:39AA 1044 9h 39m 96% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest 56m Denver DEN 19:06 → PHX 20:01UA 1507 4h 51m 70% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON