tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2320 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record TUL 15:07 SAN 16:15 51% 10% 1.9% 49%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 2h 47m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 7h 51m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 6h 08m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 08m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 14m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 8h 21m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → TUL 11:14 → ATL 14:16DL 2754 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:30DL 712 10h 16m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 3h 11m Denver DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281 7h 36m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → TUL 08:52 → PHX 09:41AA 3434 · flown by Envoy 59m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → SAN 12:11AA 2122 5h 19m 89% 69%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:50 → ORD 09:03AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 51m Chicago ORD 09:54 → SAN 12:23AA 2131 7h 33m 87% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON