tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2220 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record TUL 18:09 SEA 20:17 27% 10% 0.0% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 50m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 49m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → TUL 11:14 → ATL 14:16DL 2754 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 9h 51m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 21m Houston IAH 12:07 → SEA 14:53UA 2228 9h 53m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 3h 17m Houston IAH 10:00 → SEA 12:53UA 2205 9h 53m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m Denver DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013 8h 15m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30AA 1729 2h 05m Charlotte CLT 12:35 → SEA 15:19AA 506 10h 19m 93% 72%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Denver DEN 08:01 → SEA 10:03UA 1348 6h 03m 95% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest 57m Denver DEN 19:07 → SEA 20:56UA 2767 5h 46m 71% 41%
AmericanDetails → TUL 17:05 → DFW 18:29AA 2851 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:31 → SEA 21:54AA 2009 6h 49m 65% 33%
AlaskaDetails → TUL 15:07 → SAN 16:15AS 2320 · flown by Horizon 1h 03m San Diego SAN 17:18 → SEA 20:05AS 692 6h 58m 54% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON