tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 4006 at 08:00, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4006 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → TUL 08:00 SLC 09:55 5% 3% 0.7% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Denver DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest 6h 34m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 55m Denver DEN 07:55 → SLC 09:24UA 497 4h 24m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 7h 10m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:43 → ATL 15:44DL 2620 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653 8h 13m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m Denver DEN 13:50 → SLC 15:23UA 1840 4h 39m 91% 74%
DeltaDetails → TUL 11:14 → ATL 14:16DL 2754 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 7h 04m 90% 70%
AmericanDetails → TUL 05:58 → DFW 07:28AA 1090 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:52 → SLC 10:50AA 1878 5h 52m 95% 70%
DeltaDetails → TUL 17:29 → ATL 20:32DL 2837 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453 7h 57m 89% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON