Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 886 Delta Flight history →	TUS 06:00	ATL 12:35	5%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 937 Delta Flight history →	TUS 13:49	ATL 20:45	14%	5%	1.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUS 16:38 → SLC 19:35DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	9h 36m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905	9h 42m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	9h 17m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	TUS 07:21 → LAX 09:10DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Los Angeles	LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528	8h 16m	97%	75%
United Details →	TUS 10:55 → IAH 15:29UA 4045 · flown by Mesa	2h 41m Houston	IAH 18:10 → ATL 21:23UA 2240	7h 28m	98%	72%
American Details →	TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27AA 2193	3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:25 → ATL 16:43AA 2398	8h 42m	98%	66%
United Details →	TUS 07:06 → SFO 09:45UA 4683 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m San Francisco	SFO 10:47 → ATL 18:36UA 702	8h 30m	80%	61%
American Details →	TUS 09:30 → DFW 13:52AA 1014	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:06 → ATL 19:26AA 2403	6h 56m	93%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON