Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1540 at 05:08 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1540 TUS 05:08 → DEN 08:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2089 TUS 13:33 → DEN 16:48 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1540 United	TUS 05:08	DEN 08:16	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4210 Southwest	TUS 07:03	DEN 10:08	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 362 Southwest	TUS 09:23	DEN 12:28	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1656 United	TUS 09:33	DEN 12:43	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 575 Southwest	TUS 13:18	DEN 16:28	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2089 United	TUS 13:33	DEN 16:48	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON