Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2193 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 2193 TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 584 TUS 15:57 → DFW 20:29 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2193 American Flight history →	TUS 05:01	DFW 09:27	7%	3%	1.2%	93%
AA 2555 American Flight history →	TUS 06:59	DFW 11:27	10%	4%	1.1%	96%
AA 1809 American	TUS 07:59	DFW 12:27	14%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 1014 American Flight history →	TUS 09:30	DFW 13:52	19%	6%	1.1%	80%
AA 2187 American	TUS 12:07	DFW 16:34	27%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 2926 American Flight history →	TUS 13:18	DFW 17:50	29%	14%	1.6%	72%
AA 584 American Flight history →	TUS 15:57	DFW 20:29	32%	16%	2.3%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON