Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3502 TUS 07:21 → LAX 09:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 6292 TUS 18:04 → LAX 19:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3502 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 07:21	LAX 09:10	9%	4%	0.6%	94%
WN 3444 Southwest	TUS 09:43	LAX 11:32	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 6393 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 07:29	LAX 09:26	11%	4%	0.6%	88%
OO 6296 SkyWest	TUS 10:37	LAX 12:20	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 3904 SkyWest	TUS 12:22	LAX 14:04	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 6292 SkyWest	TUS 18:04	LAX 19:44	16%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON