tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: OO 5575 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 5575 SkyWest TUS 06:45 ORD 12:11 15% 5% 0.8% no record
AA 2537 American Flight history → TUS 12:26 ORD 18:12 32% 8% 0.7% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUS 06:37 → IAH 11:13UA 4042 · flown by Mesa 2h 35m Houston IAH 13:48 → ORD 16:30UA 1299 7h 53m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → TUS 13:12 → SFO 15:38UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m San Francisco SFO 18:22 → ORD 00:25 +1UA 1958 9h 13m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:51 → SEA 15:21DL 3679 · flown by SkyWest 2h 19m Seattle SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108 9h 47m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → TUS 10:55 → IAH 15:29UA 4045 · flown by Mesa 3h 15m Houston IAH 18:44 → ORD 21:40UA 2197 8h 45m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → TUS 13:49 → ATL 20:45DL 937 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 8h 04m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → ORD 21:20DL 2413 8h 04m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → TUS 08:41 → PHX 09:47AA 3958 · flown by Envoy 2h 28m Phoenix PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 7h 27m 100% 69%
AmericanDetails → TUS 07:29 → LAX 09:26AA 6393 · flown by SkyWest 3h 56m Los Angeles LAX 13:22 → ORD 19:51AA 3192 10h 22m 99% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TUS 15:57 → DFW 20:29AA 584 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:39 → ORD 00:08 +1AA 1620 6h 11m 73% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON