Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3331 at 06:14, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 3331 SkyWest	TUS 06:14	PDX 09:22	4%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 2216 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	TUS 10:31	PDX 13:46	2%	0%	0.0%	98%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	5h 05m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	TUS 16:38 → SLC 19:35DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:45 → PDX 22:38DL 1373	6h 00m	99%	86%
United Details →	TUS 07:06 → SFO 09:45UA 4683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m San Francisco	SFO 12:39 → PDX 14:34UA 2851	7h 28m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:51 → SEA 15:21DL 3679 · flown by SkyWest	3h 32m Seattle	SEA 18:53 → PDX 19:55DL 3997 · flown by SkyWest	8h 04m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	4h 53m	93%	78%
United Details →	TUS 13:12 → SFO 15:38UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → PDX 20:43UA 1227	7h 31m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	TUS 07:21 → LAX 09:10DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest	50m Los Angeles	LAX 10:00 → PDX 12:20DL 2766	4h 59m	86%	74%
American Details →	TUS 08:41 → PHX 09:47AA 3958 · flown by Envoy	58m Phoenix	PHX 10:45 → PDX 13:44AA 2684	5h 03m	89%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON