Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3905 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 3905 TUS 06:08 → PHX 07:08 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6332 TUS 14:10 → PHX 15:19 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3905 Southwest	TUS 06:08	PHX 07:08	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 4888 SkyWest	TUS 06:51	PHX 07:58	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3958 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUS 08:41	PHX 09:47	11%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 6514 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 10:07	PHX 11:09	11%	4%	0.6%	90%
OO 6370 SkyWest	TUS 11:58	PHX 13:03	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 6294 SkyWest	TUS 15:07	PHX 16:15	16%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 485 Southwest	TUS 16:58	PHX 18:03	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 6207 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 17:04	PHX 18:10	17%	7%	0.6%	70%
OO 6332 SkyWest	TUS 14:10	PHX 15:19	18%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON