tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 280 at 08:32, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 280 Southwest TUS 08:32 SAN 10:01 12% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUS 16:38 → SLC 19:35DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 21:15 → SAN 22:15DL 1202 5h 37m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 5h 03m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → TUS 10:31 → PDX 13:46AS 2216 · flown by Horizon 1h 15m Portland PDX 15:01 → SAN 17:35AS 1320 7h 04m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → TUS 07:06 → SFO 09:45UA 4683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m San Francisco SFO 12:21 → SAN 14:08UA 1257 7h 02m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → TUS 10:07 → PHX 11:09AA 6514 · flown by SkyWest 3h 01m Phoenix PHX 14:10 → SAN 15:31AA 1951 5h 24m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 47m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → SAN 15:56DL 1210 4h 40m 89% 70%
AmericanDetails → TUS 08:41 → PHX 09:47AA 3958 · flown by Envoy 53m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → SAN 12:11AA 2122 3h 30m 88% 68%
UnitedDetails → TUS 13:12 → SFO 15:38UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest 3h 08m San Francisco SFO 18:46 → SAN 20:22UA 1577 7h 10m 96% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → TUS 07:32 → SEA 10:40AS 767 51m Seattle SEA 11:31 → SAN 14:13AS 621 6h 41m 57% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON