Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3679 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 11:51	SEA 15:21	13%	5%	0.6%	88%
AS 767 Alaska Flight history →	TUS 07:32	SEA 10:40	21%	3%	0.9%	94%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest	1h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	5h 44m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	TUS 07:21 → LAX 09:10DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Los Angeles	LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045	7h 34m	97%	79%
American Details →	TUS 07:29 → LAX 09:26AA 6393 · flown by SkyWest	3h 43m Los Angeles	LAX 13:09 → SEA 16:04AA 6438 · flown by SkyWest	8h 35m	99%	77%
American Details →	TUS 10:07 → PHX 11:09AA 6514 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Phoenix	PHX 14:29 → SEA 17:37AA 3934 · flown by Envoy	7h 30m	99%	77%
United Details →	TUS 06:37 → IAH 11:13UA 4042 · flown by Mesa	54m Houston	IAH 12:07 → SEA 14:53UA 2228	8h 16m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	7h 17m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	TUS 16:38 → SLC 19:35DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:44 → SEA 22:00DL 2016	5h 22m	94%	67%
United Details →	TUS 07:06 → SFO 09:45UA 4683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 14m San Francisco	SFO 11:59 → SEA 14:03UA 2744	6h 57m	97%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TUS 13:12 → SFO 15:38UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest	49m San Francisco	SFO 16:27 → SEA 18:47UA 2279	5h 35m	65%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON