Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 4683 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 07:06	SFO 09:45	21%	12%	0.5%	65%
UA 5583 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 13:12	SFO 15:38	24%	13%	0.5%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	TUS 10:31 → PDX 13:46AS 2216 · flown by Horizon	1h 03m Portland	PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236	6h 09m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	TUS 16:38 → SLC 19:35DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:18 → SFO 23:20DL 1091	6h 42m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest	58m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902	5h 02m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	TUS 07:21 → LAX 09:10DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Los Angeles	LAX 12:02 → SFO 13:32DL 689	6h 11m	97%	75%
American Details →	TUS 08:41 → PHX 09:47AA 3958 · flown by Envoy	1h 58m Phoenix	PHX 11:45 → SFO 13:50AA 3199	5h 09m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:51 → SEA 15:21DL 3679 · flown by SkyWest	2h 29m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest	8h 25m	97%	72%
United Details →	TUS 10:55 → IAH 15:29UA 4045 · flown by Mesa	2h 38m Houston	IAH 18:07 → SFO 20:19UA 2607	9h 24m	97%	72%
American Details →	TUS 07:29 → LAX 09:26AA 6393 · flown by SkyWest	1h 36m Los Angeles	LAX 11:02 → SFO 12:42AA 1110	5h 13m	95%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON