Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Boston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 11:59DL 2648	5h 14m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 14:19 → BOS 16:26DL 1171	6h 01m	100%	82%
United Details →	TVC 08:42 → ORD 09:05UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → BOS 14:02UA 1606	5h 20m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	TVC 13:34 → MSP 14:25DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	50m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → BOS 19:11DL 2591	5h 37m	87%	70%
United Details →	TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 4562 · flown by GoJet	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 14:05 → BOS 17:43UA 1928	5h 28m	92%	66%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	1h 13m Denver	DEN 17:40 → BOS 23:44UA 1356	8h 16m	86%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON