Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1306 at 15:28, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1306 United Flight history →	TVC 15:28	DEN 16:27	20%	6%	0.6%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 13:34 → MSP 14:25DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 18:15 → DEN 19:27DL 2931	7h 53m	100%	83%
United Details →	TVC 08:42 → ORD 09:05UA 3713 · flown by Republic	2h 02m Chicago	ORD 11:07 → DEN 12:50UA 2857	6h 08m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	48m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 02m	87%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON