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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 4199 at 16:18, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 4199 Envoy TVC 16:18 DFW 18:11 19% 8% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TVC 08:42 → ORD 09:05UA 3713 · flown by Republic 1h 24m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:13UA 441 5h 31m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor 59m Detroit DTW 12:35 → DFW 14:18DL 1041 4h 53m 90% 73%
UnitedDetails → TVC 16:40 → IAH 19:10UA 6164 · flown by Mesa 2h 23m Houston IAH 21:33 → DFW 22:45UA 1183 7h 05m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 4562 · flown by GoJet 2h 55m Chicago ORD 15:40 → DFW 18:22UA 793 7h 07m 95% 68%
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306 2h 23m Denver DEN 18:50 → DFW 21:56UA 1565 7h 28m 96% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON