Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YV 4078 Mesa	TVC 16:44	IAH 19:16	15%	9%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	3h 08m Denver	DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475	8h 38m	99%	77%
United Details →	TVC 08:42 → ORD 09:05UA 3713 · flown by Republic	3h 35m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448	7h 57m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	48m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043	4h 52m	87%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON