Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 3995 at 13:34, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 3995 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TVC 13:34	MSP 14:25	9%	5%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	4h 09m	94%	85%
United Details →	TVC 08:42 → ORD 09:05UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 41m Chicago	ORD 10:46 → MSP 12:21UA 215	4h 39m	98%	80%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	1h 28m Denver	DEN 17:55 → MSP 21:00UA 2076	6h 32m	94%	76%
United Details →	TVC 16:40 → IAH 19:10UA 6164 · flown by Mesa	46m Houston	IAH 19:56 → MSP 23:01UA 8172	7h 21m	90%	72%
United Details →	TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 4562 · flown by GoJet	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 14:07 → MSP 15:33UA 2298	4h 18m	92%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON