Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 5618 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–37%.

Safest bet that day OO 5618 TVC 06:12 → ORD 06:04 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5865 TVC 18:11 → ORD 18:31 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5618 SkyWest	TVC 06:12	ORD 06:04	14%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 3713 United flown by Republic Flight history →	TVC 08:42	ORD 09:05	16%	3%	1.0%	47%
OO 4900 SkyWest	TVC 07:52	ORD 08:30	16%	8%	1.1%	no record
UA 346 United	TVC 10:23	ORD 10:25	20%	7%	0.9%	no record
OO 6298 SkyWest	TVC 11:02	ORD 11:43	21%	9%	1.2%	no record
OO 5839 SkyWest	TVC 12:06	ORD 12:26	28%	10%	1.3%	no record
OO 6297 SkyWest	TVC 19:32	ORD 20:05	28%	10%	1.6%	no record
OO 6209 SkyWest	TVC 15:03	ORD 15:31	30%	12%	1.8%	no record
OO 5592 SkyWest	TVC 14:20	ORD 14:38	37%	12%	1.4%	no record
OO 5865 SkyWest	TVC 18:11	ORD 18:31	37%	10%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON