Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → PHL 11:41DL 2331	4h 56m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	3h 24m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	6h 18m	100%	84%
United Details →	TVC 08:42 → ORD 09:05UA 3713 · flown by Republic	2h 28m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	6h 05m	98%	78%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	1h 25m Denver	DEN 17:52 → PHL 23:28UA 1510	8h 00m	94%	74%
United Details →	TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 4562 · flown by GoJet	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → PHL 17:53UA 2430	5h 38m	93%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON