tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4214 Southwest TYS 06:33 BNA 06:35 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1951 Southwest TYS 14:52 BNA 15:08 10% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:00 → ATL 07:01DL 3015 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069 3h 41m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 59m Dulles IAD 08:29 → BNA 09:34UA 1366 4h 49m 91% 84%
DeltaDetails → TYS 15:59 → DTW 17:50DL 4698 · flown by Endeavor 3h 09m Detroit DTW 20:59 → BNA 21:35DL 2126 6h 36m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:15 → DTW 09:04DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor 3h 21m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 48m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 4h 55m 94% 82%
AmericanDetails → TYS 08:56 → CLT 10:25AA 5947 · flown by Piedmont 1h 47m Charlotte CLT 12:12 → BNA 12:39AA 2409 4h 43m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → TYS 11:41 → DTW 13:30DL 5341 · flown by Endeavor 2h 31m Detroit DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316 5h 59m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → TYS 13:35 → IAD 15:20UA 4848 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 22m Dulles IAD 17:42 → BNA 18:47UA 2264 6h 12m 97% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TYS 08:17 → CLT 09:50AA 5641 · flown by PSA 50m Charlotte CLT 10:40 → BNA 11:09AA 1295 3h 52m 74% 62%
AmericanDetails → TYS 18:37 → PHL 20:39AA 5952 · flown by Piedmont 51m Philadelphia PHL 21:30 → BNA 22:46AA 2277 5h 09m 67% 51%
AmericanDetails → TYS 18:08 → DFW 19:28AA 2550 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → BNA 22:10AA 3230 5h 02m 62% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON