tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4215 at 08:07, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4215 Southwest TYS 08:07 BWI 09:50 5% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:45 → MSP 08:18DL 5523 · flown by Endeavor 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 10:34 → BWI 14:03DL 2357 7h 18m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:00 → ATL 07:01DL 3015 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 08:47 → BWI 10:39DL 1592 4h 39m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BWI 13:07DL 2711 5h 32m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → TYS 07:15 → IAH 08:40UA 6298 · flown by Mesa 3h 20m Houston IAH 12:00 → BWI 16:14UA 1720 8h 59m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → TYS 11:41 → DTW 13:30DL 5341 · flown by Endeavor 1h 39m Detroit DTW 15:09 → BWI 16:45DL 2480 5h 04m 93% 82%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont 2h 00m Charlotte CLT 08:23 → BWI 09:53AA 1216 4h 53m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → TYS 10:18 → ORD 11:23UA 4584 · flown by GoJet 3h 21m Chicago ORD 14:44 → BWI 17:48UA 2737 7h 30m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → TYS 08:56 → CLT 10:25AA 5947 · flown by Piedmont 2h 08m Charlotte CLT 12:33 → BWI 14:06AA 2733 5h 10m 98% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON