Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4216 at 16:17, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4216 Southwest	TYS 16:17	DAL 17:55	13%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 06:00 → ATL 07:01DL 3015	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → DAL 09:16DL 441	4h 16m	92%	80%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:49 → ATL 08:54DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 12:47 → DAL 13:50DL 512	7h 01m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	TYS 17:44 → ATL 18:50DL 2571	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	5h 41m	96%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON