Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5149 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 07:07	DCA 08:57	10%	5%	1.6%	82%
OH 5109 PSA	TYS 12:11	DCA 14:09	15%	6%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 06:45 → MSP 08:18DL 5523 · flown by Endeavor	2h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	7h 03m	96%	88%
American Details →	TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont	2h 56m Charlotte	CLT 09:19 → DCA 10:59AA 3043	5h 59m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	TYS 06:00 → ATL 07:01DL 3015	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	6h 52m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:59 → DTW 17:50DL 4698 · flown by Endeavor	3h 33m Detroit	DTW 21:23 → DCA 23:03DL 2073	7h 04m	100%	83%
American Details →	TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06AA 994	1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:50 → DCA 12:52AA 1177	7h 15m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	TYS 17:44 → ATL 18:50DL 2571	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	6h 08m	98%	80%
United Details →	TYS 10:18 → ORD 11:23UA 4584 · flown by GoJet	2h 37m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314	6h 54m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	TYS 13:59 → ATL 15:08DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	6h 48m	96%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TYS 20:05 → CLT 21:32AA 5957 · flown by Piedmont	55m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	3h 48m	53%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON