Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 994 at 05:37 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 994 TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2550 TYS 18:08 → DFW 19:28 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 994 American Flight history →	TYS 05:37	DFW 07:06	10%	3%	1.4%	90%
AA 5425 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 07:01	DFW 08:34	16%	9%	1.6%	77%
AA 5593 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 11:43	DFW 13:10	20%	9%	1.3%	79%
AA 2544 American Flight history →	TYS 15:21	DFW 16:51	27%	8%	1.5%	76%
AA 2550 American Flight history →	TYS 18:08	DFW 19:28	31%	9%	3.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON