Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, G4 3040 at 07:52, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G4 3040 Allegiant	TYS 07:52	EWR 09:52	12%	6%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 06:00 → ATL 07:01DL 3015	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	6h 21m	97%	83%
American Details →	TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont	2h 01m Charlotte	CLT 08:24 → EWR 10:14AA 1707	5h 14m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:59 → DTW 17:50DL 4698 · flown by Endeavor	3h 50m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609	7h 26m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	6h 41m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:15 → DTW 09:04DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	4h 41m	83%	73%
Delta Details →	TYS 17:44 → ATL 18:50DL 2571	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527	6h 02m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	TYS 08:35 → ATL 09:44DL 5279 · flown by Endeavor	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:10 → EWR 15:24DL 2322	6h 49m	93%	69%
American Details →	TYS 08:17 → CLT 09:50AA 5641 · flown by PSA	58m Charlotte	CLT 10:48 → EWR 12:45AA 1697	4h 28m	84%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON