tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 747 at 12:32, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 747 Southwest TYS 12:32 MCO 14:26 12% 5% 4.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 15m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MCO 11:08UA 379 5h 23m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:15 → DTW 09:04DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor 3h 19m Detroit DTW 12:23 → MCO 15:03DL 1123 7h 48m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:00 → ATL 07:01DL 3015 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:58DL 1213 3h 58m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:45 → MSP 08:18DL 5523 · flown by Endeavor 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208 6h 55m 93% 77%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont 2h 13m Charlotte CLT 08:36 → MCO 10:20AA 2170 5h 20m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → TYS 15:25 → IAH 16:50UA 4046 · flown by Mesa 2h 39m Houston IAH 19:29 → MCO 23:05UA 3883 7h 40m 92% 75%
DeltaDetails → TYS 08:35 → ATL 09:44DL 5279 · flown by Endeavor 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372 5h 59m 92% 74%
AmericanDetails → TYS 08:56 → CLT 10:25AA 5947 · flown by Piedmont 2h 02m Charlotte CLT 12:27 → MCO 14:12AA 2117 5h 16m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TYS 13:59 → ATL 15:08DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor 52m Atlanta ATL 16:00 → MCO 17:47DL 1742 3h 48m 67% 51%
DeltaDetails → TYS 15:59 → DTW 17:50DL 4698 · flown by Endeavor 48m Detroit DTW 18:38 → MCO 21:12DL 1274 5h 13m 63% 50%
UnitedDetails → TYS 07:15 → IAH 08:40UA 6298 · flown by Mesa 49m Houston IAH 09:29 → MCO 12:59UA 2310 5h 44m 62% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON