tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3079 American TYS 07:00 MIA 09:16 20% 7% 1.5% no record
MQ 4000 Envoy TYS 19:19 MIA 21:37 26% 8% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 15m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 50m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:00 → ATL 07:01DL 3015 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510 5h 03m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont 2h 48m Charlotte CLT 09:11 → MIA 11:19AA 3184 6h 19m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → TYS 07:07 → DCA 08:57AA 5149 · flown by PSA 1h 05m Washington DCA 10:02 → MIA 12:58AA 401 5h 51m 91% 73%
AmericanDetails → TYS 06:00 → PHL 07:56AA 5620 · flown by PSA 3h 36m Philadelphia PHL 11:32 → MIA 14:29AA 1989 8h 29m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 5h 32m 93% 71%
DeltaDetails → TYS 08:35 → ATL 09:44DL 5279 · flown by Endeavor 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → MIA 15:43DL 1323 7h 08m 93% 68%
UnitedDetails → TYS 15:25 → IAH 16:50UA 4046 · flown by Mesa 2h 11m Houston IAH 19:01 → MIA 22:40UA 1829 7h 15m 89% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TYS 18:37 → PHL 20:39AA 5952 · flown by Piedmont 1h 16m Philadelphia PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936 6h 15m 75% 53%
AmericanDetails → TYS 16:07 → CLT 17:33AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont 1h 02m Charlotte CLT 18:35 → MIA 20:43AA 400 4h 36m 74% 43%
AmericanDetails → TYS 15:21 → DFW 16:51AA 2544 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:44 → MIA 21:50AA 2050 6h 29m 68% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON