Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5523 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 06:45	MSP 08:18	8%	6%	0.8%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 06:00 → ATL 07:01DL 3015	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	6h 31m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	7h 15m	96%	84%
American Details →	TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont	2h 24m Charlotte	CLT 08:47 → MSP 10:35AA 2972	6h 35m	95%	84%
United Details →	TYS 08:48 → DEN 10:12UA 1256	3h 38m Denver	DEN 13:50 → MSP 16:54UA 732	9h 06m	97%	83%
American Details →	TYS 08:56 → CLT 10:25AA 5947 · flown by Piedmont	2h 12m Charlotte	CLT 12:37 → MSP 14:23AA 1671	6h 27m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:15 → DTW 09:04DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor	3h 16m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:11DL 2697	6h 56m	95%	82%
United Details →	TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 01m Dulles	IAD 08:31 → MSP 10:10UA 2604	5h 25m	91%	81%
Delta Details →	TYS 16:05 → ATL 17:10DL 1148	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → MSP 20:46DL 2654	5h 41m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON