Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1553 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1553 TYS 05:58 → ORD 06:51 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4105 TYS 16:52 → ORD 17:51 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1553 United	TYS 05:58	ORD 06:51	6%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 1577 United	TYS 10:40	ORD 11:33	20%	8%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3716 Envoy	TYS 08:04	ORD 09:01	26%	5%	1.5%	no record
MQ 4102 Envoy	TYS 11:24	ORD 12:14	27%	6%	1.3%	no record
OO 5869 SkyWest	TYS 18:08	ORD 19:00	27%	8%	1.5%	no record
OO 6344 SkyWest	TYS 20:20	ORD 21:19	27%	8%	1.6%	no record
MQ 4105 Envoy	TYS 16:52	ORD 17:51	29%	6%	2.0%	no record
UA 4584 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 10:18	ORD 11:23	6%	3%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON