Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2451 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2451 VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2170 VPS 17:11 → ATL 19:25 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2451 Delta Flight history →	VPS 07:00	ATL 09:18	11%	3%	1.1%	89%
DL 3051 Delta Flight history →	VPS 09:21	ATL 11:34	12%	4%	1.4%	90%
DL 2048 Delta Flight history →	VPS 11:14	ATL 13:34	14%	3%	0.9%	85%
DL 3085 Delta Flight history →	VPS 06:00	ATL 08:15	16%	3%	1.2%	89%
DL 2832 Delta Flight history →	VPS 14:56	ATL 17:15	18%	5%	5.2%	77%
DL 2170 Delta	VPS 17:11	ATL 19:25	26%	6%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON