tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 12:18 → BOS 14:57DL 1293 6h 57m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862 6h 47m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462 2h 58m Minneapolis MSP 20:10 → BOS 23:56DL 2614 8h 38m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:58AA 2185 2h 30m Charlotte CLT 12:28 → BOS 14:57AA 1140 6h 43m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726 6h 23m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:14 → ATL 13:34DL 2048 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → BOS 18:00DL 2595 5h 46m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:56 → ATL 17:15DL 2832 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 19:56 → BOS 22:35DL 457 6h 39m 96% 69%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:19 → BOS 15:29AA 3102 7h 59m 94% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:39 → BOS 23:41AA 1268 7h 08m 65% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON