Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3561 at 15:59, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3561 Southwest	VPS 15:59	BWI 19:20	15%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BWI 13:07DL 2711	5h 07m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462	2h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918	7h 55m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → BWI 15:49DL 2799	5h 28m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:14 → ATL 13:34DL 2048	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → BWI 17:45DL 1267	5h 31m	98%	78%
American Details →	VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:58AA 2185	2h 35m Charlotte	CLT 12:33 → BWI 14:06AA 2733	5h 52m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:56 → ATL 17:15DL 2832	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257	5h 30m	95%	71%
American Details →	VPS 12:18 → DFW 14:35AA 2460	2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:20 → BWI 21:38AA 2251	8h 20m	96%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON