Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 4110 at 12:28, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4110 Envoy	VPS 12:28	DCA 15:56	14%	4%	1.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462	3h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:58DL 2961	8h 40m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	4h 52m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	4h 27m	92%	80%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	8h 29m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	4h 35m	94%	75%
American Details →	VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy	3h 23m Miami	MIA 12:09 → DCA 14:57AA 1595	7h 57m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:14 → ATL 13:34DL 2048	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	5h 16m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:56 → ATL 17:15DL 2832	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → DCA 21:49DL 727	5h 53m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752	6h 26m	73%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON