Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4318 at 16:54, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4318 Southwest	VPS 16:54	HOU 18:52	12%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 01m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:56 → ATL 17:15DL 2832	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	6h 55m	97%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	4h 25m	63%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON