Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	5h 20m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462	3h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 20:21 → JFK 23:52DL 2692	8h 34m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 15:27 → JFK 17:56DL 1575	7h 35m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → JFK 11:39DL 1034	4h 39m	88%	73%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:56 → ATL 17:15DL 2832	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2378	5h 33m	91%	70%
American Details →	VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:58AA 2185	1h 40m Charlotte	CLT 11:38 → JFK 13:31AA 374	5h 17m	92%	69%
American Details →	VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy	1h 47m Miami	MIA 10:33 → JFK 13:29AA 2062	6h 29m	97%	67%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:50 → JFK 14:34AA 1766	7h 04m	90%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON