tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 14:18, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462 2h 48m Minneapolis MSP 20:00 → LGA 23:44DL 2733 8h 26m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 50m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 42m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:14 → ATL 13:34DL 2048 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997 7h 13m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:56 → ATL 17:15DL 2832 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 7h 28m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460 5h 29m 95% 74%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:58AA 2185 1h 54m Charlotte CLT 11:52 → LGA 13:43AA 2268 5h 29m 93% 69%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:00 → LGA 14:40AA 2178 7h 10m 92% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:57 → LGA 23:37AA 1375 7h 04m 75% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON