Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 4301 at 06:00, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4301 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	VPS 06:00	MIA 08:46	15%	5%	1.3%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	5h 07m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 13:35 → MIA 15:43DL 1323	5h 22m	95%	67%
American Details →	VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:58AA 2185	3h 37m Charlotte	CLT 13:35 → MIA 15:38AA 1198	7h 24m	97%	64%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:56 → ATL 17:15DL 2832	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	6h 03m	96%	60%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	1h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:26 → MIA 14:28AA 1454	6h 58m	94%	58%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:14 → ATL 13:34DL 2048	56m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → MIA 16:35DL 1386	4h 21m	85%	57%
American Details →	VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:03 → MIA 00:03 +1AA 2090	7h 30m	90%	51%
American Details →	VPS 12:18 → DFW 14:35AA 2460	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:30 → MIA 20:35AA 3308	7h 17m	91%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	48m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510	4h 03m	72%	56%
American Details →	VPS 18:08 → CLT 20:57AA 5201 · flown by PSA	47m Charlotte	CLT 21:44 → MIA 23:43AA 3068	4h 35m	64%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON